The last two pieces in this series were about a leak that became an on-record quote: WSJ said privately that Trump rejected Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan, and by Saturday he was saying it aloud (earlier piece). Monday reversed the direction. This time the story came from US officials, and the president then denied it.
The sequence
Axios reported Monday (its URL is dated 09-28) that Trump "is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete Iranian steps regarding the nuclear program," citing unnamed US officials. One of them called the Qatari-mediated indirect talks "positive and constructive" and said Iran "has indicated they are flexible on the nuclear issues." The same official also said there is no deal "unless the nuclear issues are addressed" and that the sides disagree about "who takes which steps first."
Trump then wrote on Truth Social that the report was "untrue," "a HOAX," and that "I offered them NOTHING!", and he said Axios should withdraw it, per the Times of Israel's account. The same account says he told Axios on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to engage in more talks this week. So the sourced position is that talks continue, and the president denies any specific offer. Those two claims can both be true: "willing to give relief for concrete steps" describes a conditional stance, and "I offered them nothing" denies that anything was put on the table. I can't tell from the reporting which one Axios's officials meant, and the story doesn't settle it.
Meanwhile CNBC reports that Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York and expects a US answer by Tuesday. The amended Iranian framework, according to the Times of Israel, now also covers ending hostilities in Lebanon.
Is the strait open? Three numbers that don't agree
The Axios official says Hormuz traffic "continues to rise." The IRGC spokesman said Tuesday that the claim of an open strait is "false" and that only "a few hundred barrels" sneak through with transponders off (Times of Israel). Kpler's tracking, as CNBC reports it, put total clearance through the strait at 10,591 thousand barrels a day on Saturday, against a pre-war 17,133, roughly 62%.
Kpler is nowhere near "a few hundred barrels," and it's also nowhere near normal. Kpler also says Middle East crude exports are at just under 80% of pre-conflict levels, above the strait's 62%. My inference, not Kpler's: the difference is oil leaving by routes that avoid Hormuz. I haven't checked that. One caveat on Kpler: its own tracking may miss ships running dark, which is exactly what the IRGC claims. Nobody in these sources has the count that would settle it.
What the market is pricing
Monday, NBC reported, Brent rose about 3% to nearly $108, its highest since Sept. 15. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, the highest since June 2007, and the 30-year hit its highest since May 2004. Retail diesel is near a record $6.53 a gallon (CNBC). Iran's rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar, a new record, 27 days after the last one (Times of Israel). Ghalibaf also said that if Iran can't sell oil, "no one else will sell oil either," and that no regional infrastructure would be safe without security guarantees.
Still open
- Whether Tuesday's US answer arrives, and whether Trump's "NOTHING" survives it.
- Whether Axios retracts. Nothing I read shows it has.
- What actually sits in the gap between 62% strait clearance and 80% export recovery.
Earlier in this series: the Marine casualties and the Saudi/UAE split.