russia’s new national sport is the “forever rate” and the only thing its beating is the economy. even the kremlin’s own pet economists are getting axed for saying the quiet part out loud: the war is lost, and the only thing getting denazified is your wallet. they swapped out klepach, the last guy at veb.rf who could count without a party script, for some bloomberg expat who probably thinks “structural deficit” is a vodka flavor. message is clear: keep your job, say “all good,” and dont mention the smell of burning rubles.
deficit math for dummies
lets talk numbers, since the regime loves to throw them like confetti at a dictator’s birthday. the budget deficit is still chilling at almost 6 trillion rubles. that’s “we’re broke, but we’ll pretend we’re not” territory. august had a tiny surplus, but only because sberbank and the other state dinosaurs coughed up their dividends like a kid forced to share his lunch. two-thirds of that “surplus” was just sber paying the government, which is like borrowing from your left pocket to pay your right. the rest of the year? back to red, baby.
the only thing growing faster than the deficit is the list of excuses on kremlin tv. every time the numbers look ugly, they just invent a new “temporary” fix. the regime’s math is basically: if you dont like the answer, fire the guy who gave it.
market panic and the rate from hell
meanwhile, the market’s in full panic mode. investors are running for the exits like someone yelled “free conscription” at a shopping mall. the central bank’s “key rate” is stuck in the stratosphere, and any hope of it dropping is as dead as the last guy who asked about troop losses. cheap money? forget it. the only thing cheap in russia right now is the propaganda, and even that’s getting recycled.
the ruble is a joke, the bond market is a graveyard, and the only thing growing is the pile of IOUs the government keeps handing out. the central bank can jack up rates all it wants, but you cant print trust. the market knows the score, and its not buying the regime’s fairy tales.
gasoline crisis: whack-a-mole with fire
now for the real clown show: the gasoline crisis. ukrainian strikes have turned russian oil refineries into a game of whack-a-mole, except the moles are on fire and the prizes are empty gas stations. about 90% of the country’s refineries that matter for gasoline are out of commission. the last big one standing, omsk, finally bit the dust too. now the only thing flowing is the tears of lada owners and the vodka at the ministry of energy.
gas prices? up almost 1% in a week. at the pump, you’re looking at 150 rubles a liter, if you can even find a pump that isn’t closed or guarded like a bank vault. diesel stopped getting cheaper, and the seasonal price dip is over. inflation’s back, and it’s not leaving. the government’s only trick is to keep prices from spiking too fast, so they’re hoarding fuel in moscow and st. petersburg while the regions get to play “how far can you push a car with no gas?” its colonialism, but with more potholes.
- 90% of key refineries out
- 150 rubles per liter at the pump
- 1% weekly price jump
- regional rationing, 20 liters per customer if you’re lucky
the fallout: cars, farms, and fake fixes
car sales are down 20-30% at dealerships, avtoVAZ is bleeding cash and not planning to make a profit for years. the russian dream used to be a lada that starts, now it’s a lada that moves at all. farmers are getting wrecked too, because if you think food prices are bad now, wait until the tractors run dry. the only thing growing in the countryside is the line at the bus station out of town.
the regime’s answer? import a little fuel, ration the rest, and hope nobody notices. most small towns are rationing gas, if they have any at all. twenty liters per customer, if you’re lucky. the rest? closed pumps, long lines, and a lot of angry people who can’t get to work. but hey, at least moscow’s got enough for the next parade.
the “badyazhit” game is in full swing - diluting gasoline with whatever’s handy. it’s not a solution, it’s a time bomb for every engine in the country. but when the alternative is walking, people will risk it. the regime’s only hope is that ukraine stops hitting refineries, but judging by the smoke on the horizon, that’s not happening.
inflation forever, bailout for the regime
inflation? officially, the government admits it’s not going away. the days of “low inflation” are over, and everyone knows it. the only thing stable is the misery. the business world was praying for cheap loans to survive, but with the key rate glued to the ceiling, that dream’s dead. the only thing getting a bailout is the regime’s propaganda budget.
the platform economy is taking hits too. wildberries sellers are looking at 300 billion rubles in losses, and most of them won’t see a single kopek in compensation. the government’s answer? nationalize more stuff, break up what’s left, and blame the west. ozon’s collapse is just the latest episode in the “privatize the profits, socialize the losses” sitcom. if you’re not in the inner circle, you’re just another extra in the background, waiting for your scene to get cut.
regions get the shaft, moscow gets the gas
the regime’s solution to shortages is to suck resources out of the provinces and dump them into the capital. it’s the same old colonial playbook: moscow gets the goods, everyone else gets the shaft. small towns are left with empty shelves, closed gas stations, and a front-row seat to the slow-motion collapse. but don’t worry, the tv says everything’s fine, so it must be true.
the war is the black hole at the center of all this. every ruble spent on bombs is a ruble not spent on roads, schools, or literally anything useful. the strikes on refineries are just the most visible symptom. the real disease is a regime that would rather burn the country down than admit it’s losing.
you cant run a country on vibes and vodka forever
every new mobilization, every new round of sanctions, every new “emergency” decree is just another brick in the wall between russia and anything resembling a normal life.
the endgame: there isnt one
the market knows it. investors aren’t stupid - they see the writing on the wall, and it says “get out while you can.” the only thing keeping the lights on is a mix of creative accounting and the hope that nobody asks too many questions.
so what’s the endgame? there isn’t one. the regime’s plan is to keep the war going forever, keep the rate high forever, keep the lies coming forever. the economy’s on life support, and the only thing the doctors are prescribing is more propaganda. the market’s terrified, the people are exhausted, and the only thing moving fast is the price of gas.
bottom line: the war is eating the economy alive, the market’s in full panic, and the gasoline crisis is just the cherry on top. the regime’s answer is to fire anyone who tells the truth, shuffle the deck chairs, and hope the ship doesn’t sink before the next victory day. but you can’t fill your tank with propaganda, and when the bill comes due, no amount of kremlin cope is gonna save you.
russian economic policy is just musical chairs, but the music is a siren and the chairs are on fire