Trump, Xi Jinping and Putin are due to meet on November 19 at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Nuclear arms and Iran are on the agenda, while Russia's war against Ukraine is left off it. Putin reportedly intends to bring it up anyway, with Kyiv absent from the meeting. The danger is real.
The Shenzhen Agenda
Politico sources say the three leaders will discuss nuclear disarmament. Washington does not expect a concrete arms-reduction agreement to be signed. Iran is the other stated topic. Those are consequential issues. They also give Putin a seat at a table with the US and Chinese presidents while his invasion of Ukraine continues.
A White House official says negotiations over Russia's war are taking place in a separate format without China. The difference is important. The November 19 meeting is not being presented as a Ukraine peace summit. Even so, Putin may still try to steer part of the conversation toward the war. Media reports say he intends to raise it.
The Missing Seat
Kyiv stays out of the room. If Putin puts Ukraine on the table, Trump and Xi will hear the aggressor's account without the country he invaded present to answer it. Keeping Ukraine off the formal agenda still leaves its future open to discussion. That risk sits behind the diplomatic choreography. Putin can seek influence over how other leaders understand the war even if they sign nothing and announce no Ukraine decision.
A conversation about nuclear arms also gives him a chance to present Russia as an indispensable partner on global security. He would rather not be seen as the state whose war has shattered security in Europe.
A meeting of Washington, Beijing and Moscow about major security questions, without active European or Indo-Pacific allied participation, concentrates the discussion among three leaders whose decisions affect countries outside the room.
The Test in Shenzhen
The broader format is troubling too. A meeting of Washington, Beijing and Moscow about major security questions, without active European or Indo-Pacific allied participation, concentrates the discussion among three leaders whose decisions affect countries outside the room. On Ukraine, the line must be sharper still. Separate talks cannot become an excuse to let Putin test proposals with Trump and Xi before Kyiv has a say.
No arms deal is expected from Shenzhen. The immediate test is whether the stated agenda holds when Putin tries to add his war to it.