Putin wants Ukraine to surrender the parts of Donbas it still controls before he will agree to a ceasefire, the Financial Times reports. A person familiar with his position says he is also threatening to destroy Ukraine’s bridges, ports, railways and power stations until Kyiv accepts Moscow’s terms.
The Territorial Demand
The FT account describes two demands, not one. First, Putin wants the unoccupied parts of eastern Donbas handed to Russia as the price of stopping the fighting. He then links further Ukrainian territorial concessions to security guarantees from NATO countries.
The proposal leaves the question of territory for later. It makes Ukraine’s withdrawal from land Russia has not taken a precondition for a pause. Then it keeps more land on the table when the discussion turns to Ukraine’s future security. Kyiv will be asked to give up territory before a ceasefire. And to give up more in the course of seeking protection against another attack.
The Threat Behind It
The Kremlin is seeking to regain the initiative through large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s energy system this winter, according to the FT. A person familiar with Putin’s position described the threat in sweeping terms: keep destroying critical infrastructure until Ukraine agrees, leaving it without bridges, ports, railways, energy facilities and power stations by next year.
Those are the systems that keep civilians supplied, move goods and allow the country to function. Putin is using their destruction as bargaining power in negotiations. Timing is important. Pressure on heat and power rises as winter deepens, while damage to transport links would compound the economic cost. The threat is meant to make holding out more painful than conceding land.
Calling that a route to peace does not change what is being demanded.
Prospects for Talks
@NOELreports, also citing the FT, says prospects for a ceasefire agreement at next week’s talks in Abu Dhabi are slim. That assessment fits the demands on the table.
Moscow is seeking territory Ukraine still holds. It is tying security guarantees to additional concessions. It threatens to wreck the country’s essential infrastructure if Kyiv refuses.