Flavio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s first round, but Lula won the presidency because the name on the ballot carried everything that name meant into the runoff.
The Father He Could Not Escape
Flavio tried to present himself as a more moderate figure than Jair Bolsonaro. But his father, the former president, is imprisoned for attempting to hold on to power by force after losing the 2022 election. For voters in the centre, that coup attempt remained a red line.
The right’s strong parliamentary showing makes clear that its ideas have a large constituency. It also makes clear why the runoff was different: voters could back right-wing candidates for Congress without handing the presidency to Bolsonaro’s son.
Trump Made Lula’s Case for Him
Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil last year over the prosecution of his ally Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilians saw pressure on their country. Lula, a left-wing president facing anger over the cost of living, suddenly had an opportunity to defend Brazil’s independence. American flags waving at Flavio’s rallies did the son no favours.
Lula had domestic strengths, too. Jobs became easier to find, prices stabilised and poorer voters felt a tax break in their pockets. But living costs were still high enough to give the right its first-round lead. Brazil remains sharply divided: the poorer north backs Lula’s social policies, while the wealthier south and Protestant churches lean towards the right’s promises on crime and taxes.
A Presidency Under Restraint
Lula gets a fourth term; the right holds parliament. That means bargaining, limits on spending plans and little room for sweeping reform. At nearly 81, Lula is still the figure holding the left together, with no clear successor.
This result offers nothing to Ukraine.
Lula has long maintained friendly ties with the Kremlin, but the Bolsonaros offered no better alternative. Jair went to Moscow in February 2022 to declare solidarity with Putin and later mocked Ukrainians for entrusting their country to a comedian. The farmers who form part of the right’s base also rely on Russian fertiliser. Neither camp is likely to turn Brazil into a decisive force in Europe, but neither deserves a free pass on its record.