Ukrainian drone strikes have turned Russia’s refinery network into a sustained operational and financial wound, and Bloomberg’s data now shows the damage is compounding faster than repairs can contain it. President Trump’s push to stop those attacks arrives at the moment the campaign is inflicting its deepest costs on the industry funding Putin’s war.
The Strike Rate
Bloomberg calculates that Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian refineries at least 114 times since the start of 2026. That is more than double the number in the same period last year. Refinery processing has fallen to its lowest level in years. Fuel shortages have followed, and Moscow has restricted exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
A single spectacular fire followed by a return to business as usual misses what happens here. Ukraine is hitting facilities again while operators are trying to bring them back online. Every interruption costs time, money and output.
Rosneft’s Repair Spiral
In September, strikes damaged five of Rosneft’s 15 refineries in European Russia. Ryazan was hit repeatedly as the company tried to restart it. Syzran has spent much of the past six months either shut down or operating below a third of capacity. The Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea has been closed since April.
Rosneft representatives have acknowledged internally that the cost of constant repairs cannot be sustained indefinitely, according to Bloomberg’s reporting. Some work that should take days is being stretched over weeks. Sanctions compound the problem. Replacement parts must be sourced domestically or from China, can take months to arrive and do not always fit the equipment they are meant to repair.
The Balance Sheet
Rosneft’s first-half net profit fell by nearly a fifth to 200 billion rubles, about $2.4 billion. By the end of June, its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio had reached 1.8, the highest in quarterly reports dating back to 2020. Bloomberg also reports signs of distress at Credit Bank of Moscow, a lender associated by market participants and officials with Rosneft chief Igor Sechin’s sphere of influence: it has $8 billion in non-performing loans.
The burning Ryazan refinery in the archive footage is one visible episode of that campaign. The numbers tell the larger story.
Trump’s proposed halt would come at the precise point when repeated Ukrainian strikes are turning refinery damage into a sustained operational and financial burden.