The Guardian has obtained a Russian planning document that reads like a blueprint for making Ukraine's largest cities unlivable. Ukrainian intelligence says it intercepted the assessment last month. The paper does not name which Russian agency wrote it.
What the Document Sets Out
The document treats power, water, heat and sewage as targets. Its stated goals range from "degrading the quality of life" to blackouts, and some go further, to shutting off the water supply entirely.
Moscow has reportedly calculated how many missiles and drones it needs for specific infrastructure sites. In the worst case for Kyiv, residents may go without power for up to 20 hours a day.
The Consequence They Wrote Down
Cutting the water, the paper coolly predicts, would cause a "deterioration of sanitary conditions and the forced outflow of residents from cities." The planners describe an epidemic risk and a mass displacement as the desired result.
Read that again. The campaign's stated purpose is to punish civilians until the country gives up.
What This Week Looked Like
Missiles and drones have systematically hit power plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv. Both cities have endured rolling blackouts, and they have also endured water outages.
Every bit of it came while Trump's unilateral "energy ceasefire" was supposedly in force. Russia never signed up to it. It kept up its methodical strikes, while Kyiv was warned off hitting Russian energy.
The Real Stakes
The Guardian portrays the Kremlin as stalled on the frozen front lines and turning instead to hurting people in big cities. Moscow is losing ground in the places where the fighting is heaviest, so it burns heating plants, pumping stations and substations with missiles Ukraine cannot always stop.
Air defense is the difference between a hard winter and a humanitarian catastrophe for Kyiv and Kharkiv. Interceptors, generation equipment and long-range strike capacity to hit the launch infrastructure are what turn this blueprint into a failed plan.
Read that again. The campaign's stated purpose is to punish civilians until the country gives up.