The diesel deal is the most underrated piece of this whole mess. Russia sells Americans diesel it has no use for. It walks away with partial sanctions relief. And the Kremlin learns that pressure expires. Anders Nielsen of the Royal Danish Defence College lays out why this wrecks Ukraine's strategy. On the mechanics, I think he is right.
Sanctions logic
Ukraine's bet was simple. Keep stacking economic pressure until Putin has to negotiate. Once Washington loosens the screws, Moscow will have little reason to keep talking. It now expects more waivers. Waiting is cheaper than a deal.
Strikes on Ukrainian cities are still going on. Nielsen says the US crossed a red line. After this, Washington can be called neither a supporter nor a neutral mediator. Senator Blumenthal put it more bluntly: America is becoming complicit in Putin's war.
Any US company buying Russian fuel should remember that Congress is watching.
Why Trump sides with power
Kyiv and Europe made a big mistake. They believed Trump admires people who fight. The plan was to show him Ukraine winning and let him come around.
Nielsen's reading is different. Trump treats force as the only test of truth. Greenland and Canada follow the same logic: strong states are entitled to lean on weak ones. Within that frame, Russia dominating Ukraine looks natural.
A Ukraine that emerges from the war on top would also stand with Canada in defending sovereignty against Washington. Trump wants Russia to stop, not lose, which is why every negotiation round collapses.
What still moves him
Eighteen months of flattery produced sanctions relief for Putin. The alternative is to find the pressure points and hit them.
Zelensky's blunt interview with Piers Morgan in the FT drew plenty of criticism. Still, it landed on exactly the right nerves in American society. Intelligence sharing and Starlink are still running.
- Intelligence and Starlink: likely to continue. The key part is the early warning system for missile attacks. Trump would have to explain to Americans why he wants to take away Ukrainians' chance to reach a shelter in time.
- Sanctions relief: harder to stop, and more of it may come.
- Refinery strikes: Trump has no veto over Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries.
The US president is not omnipotent. Midterms are about a month away. Polls show Americans back Ukraine. Many Republicans like to quote Reagan rather than cuddle up to dictators. Anyone who flatters both Putin and Xi looks weak, and his own party can see it.
Ukraine needs leverage over Trump, not his goodwill. The burning refineries stay on the schedule.