The Russian plan for 2026 was never a slow grind through the Donbas. The maps from @TheStudyofWar show exactly how the double envelopment was supposed to work, and why it has now collapsed.
Two Pincers, One Objective
The northern pincer was to push from the Lyman direction. The southern pincer was to push from Dobropillya. The linkup point was Barvinkove in Kharkiv Oblast.
If those two forces met, the entire Ukrainian Fortress Belt would have been encircled. That would have effectively completed the seizure of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast. Putin could have declared victory and dared the world to do anything about it.
The northern pincer is broken. The southern pincer has no partner. The encirclement is dead.
Operation Vivaldi Breaks the Northern Pincer
Operation Vivaldi destroyed that plan before it could mature. The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps did not just blunt the northern pincer. It inflicted an operational defeat on Russian forces in the Lyman direction and liberated 51 square kilometers across Katerynivka, Nove, and Ridkodub.
The feint toward Zelena Dolyna pulled Russian forces out of position. Then the real blow landed. ISW is explicit about what this means: Russian forces now have to reconstitute and regain the positions they just lost before they can even think about Slovyansk again. This counts as a failure at the campaign level.
Second-Order Effects and a Harder Russian Problem
The second-order effects are just as damaging for Moscow. Vivaldi destroyed two supporting Russian efforts at once: the deep encirclement of the Fortress Belt and the direct assault on Slovyansk from the northeast.
Russian commanders now face a problem they did not have in January. They must rebuild shattered units, retake lost ground, and rethink their entire operational approach in the Lyman direction. Ukrainian forces have reinforced the Fortress Belt itself, and the defensive positions that Russia hoped to encircle are now stronger than they were before the offensive began.
No Foundation for Putin’s Fiction
The analysis from @TheStudyofWar leaves no room for Putin's fiction. Assessing whether Russian forces can take the rest of Donetsk Oblast quickly lacks any foundation. Forecasting that they will ever complete the seizure by force lacks any basis.