The Reuters report confirms what was already visible: Moscow is shopping for an American investor to restart Nord Stream rather than waiting for a peace deal. The pipeline that fed Germany before the full-scale invasion is now the centerpiece of talks between Russian and US officials, with Jared Kushner and Kirill Dmitriev named directly.
The Timing Is the Story
Five unnamed sources, with Berlin and Washington datelines, describe a business track running parallel to the war. Witkoff, Kushner, and Dmitriev are pushing hard for a trilateral meeting before the midterms. The goal is not diplomacy.
The goal is to get Trump to delay or weaken the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions before November 3, ideally before October 19. Moscow is frantic because the clock is running out. The Kremlin understands that once the midterms pass, the political cost of easing sanctions drops, but the window to extract a concession from Trump closes. So the pressure campaign is on.
The whole play is that.
Rubio Undercuts the Track
Rubio just undercut the entire track. He said there are no visible prospects for a negotiated settlement. Witkoff and Kushner are selling the opposite. It gives Kyiv a concrete reason to refuse any trilateral before the midterms.
Rubio is acting in his own interest, but his interest aligns with Ukraine's here. A dead diplomatic track leaves nothing to discuss on November 2.
Three Traps Inside a Trilateral
Three traps sit inside any trilateral before the midterms.
- The commercial trap. Witkoff and Kushner want cover to negotiate business deals with Moscow, including Nord Stream and Lukoil assets. Ukraine has zero interest in legitimizing that.
- The refinery trap. An active information campaign in the US blames Ukrainian strikes on refineries for high gasoline prices. A trilateral gives that narrative a stage.
- The fake peace trap. The pro-Moscow group wants to tell Trump that talks are happening, the war is near its end, and sanctions should not escalate.
Ukraine should not walk into it. No trilateral before November 3. After that, the event can happen somewhere neutral, away from any stage Kushner built for himself.