The Washington Post editorial board has now joined the chorus of major American outlets arguing that de-escalation with Russia only works from a position of strength. That should not be a controversial statement in year five of a full-scale war. Yet here we are, watching the White House send the opposite signal while Moscow burns Ukrainian cities and runs sabotage operations across Europe.
The Scale of Russian Terror
The numbers from last week alone tell you what Russia is actually doing while certain people talk about peace. Ukrainian officials report over 2,200 strike drones launched, roughly 1,650 aerial bombs dropped, and 38 missiles fired. On Monday, Russia hit the National Academy of Sciences building in central Kyiv in broad daylight.
At least two people died. A medical facility was damaged. Over the weekend, drones hit a food market. Two more dead. This is terror as policy, because the Russian army cannot achieve on the battlefield what the Kremlin wants.
The Hybrid War in Europe
And the hybrid war is running in parallel. German authorities say Russia nearly blew up a Ukrainian cargo plane at an airport near Leipzig last month. That attack failed, but it could have produced mass casualties on European soil.
The goal is obvious: convince Europeans that supporting Ukraine is too dangerous, that the cost is too high, that neutrality is safer. The same logic Russia applies to Ukrainian cities. Break the will, force concessions, avoid consequences.
Ukraine's Pressure Point and Washington's Mistake
Ukraine has responded by moving the war deeper into Russia. Strikes on oil refineries and defense plants deep inside the country are now routine. After the September 20 attack, the Moscow refinery stopped processing. For millions of Russians, the war was something distant, something happening on television. It is visible. Now it has a price.
The mechanism that changes Kremlin calculus is Putin's system being sensitive to the logic of force. Kennan wrote that in 1946, and it remains the most accurate description of how Moscow operates. So what does Trump do? He tells Zelensky to slow down the strikes on Russian refineries. He tells Ukraine to ease off its one pressure point that actually works. The Washington Post is right to call this out.
The correct signal is a warning to Moscow: if the attacks on Ukrainian cities and European infrastructure continue, the United States will allow Ukraine to do more.
The Path to Deterrence
The EU is starting to understand. Defense ministers met Monday to discuss response mechanisms for Russian hybrid attacks. Rutte said the answer to every hybrid incident should be more support for Ukraine. Macron, speaking about Leipzig, said Russia's actions will not go unanswered. These are the right words. The question is whether they become policy.
Washington has tools it has not fully used. The campaign against Iranian financial institutions is a model. Hit Russian banks, hit the foreign institutions that work with them, hit the intermediaries connecting Russia's war economy to the global financial system. The goal is to defeat Putin. The goal is simpler: make every escalation worsen his position.
Deterrence works this way. De-escalation happens through that process. Russia is probing for weakness. It has found too much of it in Western capitals over the past four years. The quickest way to end the war is to convince Moscow it has reached a boundary the West refuses to cross.