The numbers out of Russia's refining sector now constitute a lasting pattern. A collapse is happening.
The Scale of the Shutdown
As of 29.09.2026, out of 35 of Russia's largest refineries, 22 are fully stopped, 7 are running below capacity, and only 6 are still working, all beyond 3000 km from Ukraine's border.
That last point matters. The only refineries still functioning normally are the ones Ukrainian systems cannot yet reach. Everything inside the strike envelope is burning, limping, or shut down.
The Expanding Target Set
The tools are familiar by now. FP-1 with a range up to 2500 km. Lyutyy up to 2000 km. But the target set has expanded.
- Pipelines
- Tank farms
- Transformers feeding refinery power
- Mini-refineries
These are now part of a campaign that dismantles the entire logistics chain around Ukraine's plants. The pace is not slowing. Last month repeated the result of 16 burning refineries. Moscow refinery went down again. Some plants are out for weeks. Others for months. Russian repair crews cannot keep up with the tempo of Ukrainian strikes.
The Economic Damage
The economic effect is already visible. In August and September, average daily refining volume was about 3.9 million barrels. In 2023, it was 5.5 million. That is a loss of roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of processing capacity.
Refining feeds about a quarter of Russia's federal budget, and most of that budget goes to the war. The Kremlin tried to paper over the fuel shortage before its staged elections by releasing reserves. It worked just long enough to let the voting charade finish. Now the second wave of fuel shortages is moving through Russia again.
The Correct Strategy
Russia's war economy depends on selling refined products and using the revenue to pay soldiers, buy drones, and keep the artillery shelling Ukrainian cities. Every refinery stopped means fewer rubles for the war. Every transformer hit means longer repair cycles. Every pipeline strike means more bottlenecks.
Russia is producing less damage than it receives. It's soaking it up poorly, betting the West will lose interest before everything falls apart.
Only one plan remains. Ukraine is hitting targets before Russia can repair them. If this tempo holds, 2027 starts with a Russian refining sector in critical condition and a budget even more dependent on reserves it no longer has.