Eleven years after Russian forces first seized Donetsk, the front line still sits within 50 kilometers of its outskirts, and Russian tactics have barely evolved. The offensive between Druzhkivka and Dobropillia has ground on for weeks without a decisive breach, while the battle for Kostiantynivka has stalled. Russia is losing the war: at this pace, its manpower will be exhausted long before Ukraine's land is.
The Arithmetic of Stalemate
Since February 2024 Russia has taken under 1 percent of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory. The gains are measured in hundreds of square kilometers, not provinces. In the Huliaipole-Orikhiv sector, the Eastern Grouping needed more than two months of assaults to advance 2.5 to 5.5 kilometers on isolated stretches.
Around Druzhkivka and Dobropillia, Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian defenders roughly six to one, yet after a year of fighting they have only just crossed the unfinished “line 0.5” and begun attacking the next defensive belt. Small infantry groups infiltrate villages such as Ternuvata Nova and Solodke, but infiltration is not control. The front near Kostiantynivka has gone quiet because the offensive stalled.
In the last two years, Russia has taken less than 1 percent of Ukraine's territory at a cost exceeding one million soldiers.
The Druzhkivka-Dobropillia Gap
Between Druzhkivka and Dobropillia, two cities shielding Donbas’s southern flank, Russian forces have spent weeks trying to force a gap. More than two months of offensive fighting bought them 2.5 to 5.5 kilometers on select axes. That is everything. The cost is now measurable in seven figures: over one million Russian soldiers lost for less than one percent of Ukraine’s territory seized in two years.
Russian infiltration groups appear near Ternuvata, Solodke, Verkhnia Tersa, and a string of villages. But infiltration is not control. The 5th Army’s forward units failed their assigned tasks. Only small infantry assault groups reached Ukrainian lines. Meanwhile, the 36th and 29th Armies absorb Ukrainian tactical counterattacks inside their own sectors. Donetsk, captured eleven years ago, still sits less than fifty kilometers from the frontline.
Mass Without Movement
Between Druzhkivka and Dobropillia, Russian forces hold roughly a six-to-one manpower advantage. Yet they remain fixed against the first defensive line. Three combined-arms armies and two divisions press the Azov sector, searching for gaps in the wire and dragon’s teeth west of Pokrovsk. After more than two months of assault, their forward units have advanced only 2.5 to 5.5 kilometers on isolated axes.
Small infantry groups infiltrate near Ternuvata, Solodke, and Vozdvyzhenka. But infiltration does not equal control. Russian command is stockpiling assault infantry in tactical depth, hoping to disorganize Ukrainian defenses before winter. The same tactic failed last year. It has not evolved since. Meanwhile, fighting around Kostiantynivka has stalled, and most Russian units have shifted toward the Druzhkivka, Dobropillia gap. The objective is the high ground behind the first line, then fire control over the next belt.
The Pattern Repeats
For weeks Russian forces have pushed between Druzhkivka and Dobropillia, the two cities shielding the southern flank of the Donbas, without converting mass into movement. After a full year of fighting to break the unfinished 0.5 line, they are now assaulting line 1, where Ukrainian troops hold at a numerical disadvantage of roughly one to six. The result is still measured in single digits.
Over more than two months of offensive operations on the Huliaipole, Orikhiv axis, Russian units advanced only 2.5 to 5.5 kilometers on isolated sectors, and forward elements of the 5th Army reached no farther than infiltration by small infantry groups around Ternuvata Nova and Solodke Dobropillia. Infiltration is not control. The same pattern holds across the 36th and 29th Armies, where Ukrainian tactical counterattacks erase gains almost as fast as they are made. At this pace, taking the next defensive belt would require years, not weeks.