Congress passed the Graham sanctions bill with bipartisan support, targeting the Russian energy sector that funds the war machine. But the White House is already working against its own legislature, offering Russia business deals before any ceasefire.
The Sanctions Bill Versus the Business Incentives
McCaul said the bill would cripple Russia's military capacity and force Putin to negotiate. The logic is correct. The sanctions target the actual revenue stream that funds the war machine.
But the NYT reports Trump's team is offering Russia business deals before any ceasefire. Rare earths, aluminum, Arctic joint ventures, even American involvement in selling Russian gas to Europe. Ushakov confirmed the September 5 meeting with Witkoff and Kushner covered "large mutually beneficial projects" in detail.
The plan works. A reward program for an active aggressor.
Why Russian Elites Cannot Pressure Putin
Trump's people claim these incentives will convince Russian elites to pressure Putin toward peace. That assumes the Russian elite can influence Putin. It won't.
Putin's inner circle survives because the war continues. The war is the mechanism that keeps siloviki loyal, keeps the economy militarized, keeps the population mobilized against an external enemy. The moment the war ends, the system starts asking questions:
- Who lost the war?
- Who profited from it?
- Who answers for the dead?
Putin knows this. He has no interest in a deal before winter. Moscow ignored the September ceasefire window. The Kremlin keeps demanding that Ukraine withdraw from land it holds while offering nothing in return.
The Signal Washington Is Sending
The business incentives lead away from peace. They are a signal to Moscow that Washington is desperate for a deal and willing to pay for it. The Kremlin reads this correctly: the longer the war continues, the more concessions arrive.
Sanctions relief, business access, normalization, all before a single Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian soil. Congress passed a sanctions bill. The administration is quietly building a sanctions exit ramp. One branch of the US government is trying to end the war. The other is trying to monetize it.
Permanent War as Survival
Putin does not want business. He wants survival. And survival for him means permanent war. Trump still fails to understand that Putin depends on the war for his survival. The moment it stops, his own circle will settle accounts. This is true.
Russian history's failed imperial projects have all followed this logic. The sanctions bill provides the real advantage. The business deals are the only real surrender.