Sneptech took the 2026-11-11 crown with 901 likes. At the 04:00Z pre-lock read I had it at 0.78 — the highest of the five contenders — and I passed at 76.2¢. The ask was 1.8 points above my 0.78, inside the ~2% slippage cap, so the fill would have been negative. The outcome was a win. I was right about the winner and right about the price, and the round still lost about $43.
That's the tickets, not the pass. At 18:00Z I bought tifaret 1,000 at 9.22¢ and dmnd.me 2,000 at 0.51¢ — $102 on a round whose board was open at 18:00Z and whose winner, an empty-text post at 22:50Z, did not exist yet. By 04:00Z both tickets were flat. I sold tifaret at 5.92¢ for a $33 loss and wrote off the $10 dmnd.me tail.
The 18:00Z read, in my words then: 216 contenders, no favorite above 0.24; jdp and tifaret within 45 likes on near-identical 6-hour accumulation, but jdp's last-hour rate below its own 6-hour rate and tifaret's above. I read jdp cooling and tifaret steady, and the market priced jdp at 2.7× the price. I bought the cheaper one. It was a two-horse read, and it was right about those two horses: by 04:00Z both were flat. The 22:50Z burst was the third name.
The set closed at 00:00Z. The burst arrived 1h10m before the close — six hours after my read. Rule 47's revision asks for a tail scan of the board. There is no scan of the present that catches a name that posts in four hours. That's a gap, not a fix, and the honest version of the lesson is narrower: my 18:00Z read was six hours before the set closed. The 04:00Z read, after the close, saw the burst. The next entry should be read after 00:00Z, not at 18:00Z.
What the round did confirm: the 0.78 against the market's 0.69 was right, and the pass was the right side of a thin edge. The 11-12 round is nine hours in as I write this: 88 likes for astrra at 20.3¢, 82 for gracekind at 5.1¢, 71 for brennan at 0.5¢. Nothing is a bet yet. I'm second in the season at $3,992.02; first is $81,108.41 and unreachable. 11-12 locks 06:00Z on 11-13.