On 10-16 I wrote that the separation question looked settled in the polls and that the nine other questions were the uncertain part (earlier piece). Counting is still going (official results are due 10-29 at 10 a.m.), but two unofficial snapshots from Elections Alberta data already show how each held up. None of these numbers are final.
Question 10
The CBC/Janet Brown poll (fielded 9-8 to 9-21) had 72% remain, 23% Option 2 and 4% unsure. Drop the unsure and the split is 72/95 = 75.8% remain and 23/95 = 24.2% Option 2.
The counts so far:
| Snapshot | Areas reporting | Remain | Option 2 | |---|---|---|---| | ~3:00 a.m. EDT 10-20 (Vista Radio, from Elections Alberta) | 2,355 of 5,586 | 76.3% (1,012,223) | 23.7% (313,904) | | 5:10 a.m. 10-20 (Calgary Citizen, from Elections Alberta) | 4,179 of 5,586 | 75.8% (1,329,176) | 24.2% (424,110) |
At 5:10 a.m. the count sat on the poll's decided split to the decimal. Take that as a coincidence of a partial count, since Option 2 rose half a point between snapshots and could keep rising. It does mean the poll's central finding survived, and that the "4% unsure" did not break heavily either way. The poll could not test my UCP-share arithmetic, and this result doesn't test it either. Elections Alberta doesn't report by party, and I haven't seen exit data.
Calgary is much lower than the province: Option 1 had 83.0% there (1,145 of 1,550 areas) and led in all 26 ridings, with the smallest share, 76.8%, in Calgary-South East.
The nine other questions
My piece said 49% of the CBC sample hadn't decided on the nine and that the poll asked about themes, not the ballot wording. Here is how the ballot questions have counted at the same two moments. Percentages are Yes of votes counted per question, and Elections Alberta counted Question 10 first and then questions 1 to 9 in order, so these questions have fewer votes in.
| Question | ~3:00 a.m. EDT | 5:10 a.m. | |---|---|---| | 1. More control over immigration | 57.1 | 58.6 | | 2. Programs only for citizens, PRs, approved status | 55.7 | 57.2 | | 3. 12-month residency for social supports | 56.9 | 58.4 | | 4. Fees for health care and education (non-permanent status) | 55.9 | 57.1 | | 5. Proof of citizenship to vote | 60.4 | 63.1 | | 6. Provinces select King's Bench and Appeal judges | 50.1 | 50.9 | | 7. Abolish the Senate | 51.2 | 52.5 | | 8. Opt out of federal programs, keep funding | 47.6 | 48.3 | | 9. Provincial laws prioritized over conflicting federal laws | 49.4 | 51.5 |
Two things stand out.
- Every question moved toward Yes as more was counted. Question 9 crossed 50%: No led at the first snapshot and Yes leads at the second. Question 6 was within 0.2 points at the first and is not decided at the second. I would not state a winner for 6, 8 or 9 from these counts.
- The immigration questions (1 to 5) are not close at either snapshot, at 55% to 63% Yes. The CBC poll's 54% agreement on more provincial control over immigration (from April's 57%) is in the neighborhood of Question 1's 58.6%, though that was a themed question and this is the ballot wording.
One conflict in the coverage: the Toronto Star's analysis says that "as of Tuesday morning, each of the nine questions are backed by majorities that favour a change to the status quo," and in the same piece that Question 8 is a "close-fought battle." Calgary Citizen's 5:10 a.m. table has Question 8 at 48.3% Yes. The Star may be using a later count, and I can't tell which. Elections Alberta's own results page loaded for me only as an empty template, so I couldn't check either against the source.
What is still open
- Smith's address, 6:45 p.m. Mountain time today (0045 UTC 10-21), has not happened as I write. She has said she would not hold another separation referendum while she is premier. On implementation, the Globe and Mail (cited in my 10-16 piece) said the government had not defined "sustainable" immigration levels (Question 1) or the fees in Question 4, and that Finance Minister Jason Nixon suggested the immigration measures would wait until after the October 2027 election.
- The UCP convention, at the end of November in Calgary. The Alberta Prosperity Project's lawyer Jeffrey Rath told Postmedia that separatists will try to replace Smith as leader; Postmedia also reports Red Deer-South MLA Jason Stephan, who said he voted Option 2, will not run next year. These are statements of intent and one announcement, not evidence of how many UCP members agree.
- Turnout. Elections Alberta anticipated more than 80%. I have only the pre-election figure: 1,356,873 of 3,148,343 eligible voters (43.1%) had voted in advance or by special ballot.
- Whether late counts continue to shift. Whether the drift toward Yes and toward Option 2 reflects which areas report last, I can't say. No source I read gives the reporting order.
Sources
Calgary Citizen (unofficial results as of 5:10 a.m. 10-20, from Elections Alberta); Vista Radio via My Parry Sound Now (results as of 3:00 a.m. EDT 10-20); Edmonton Journal (quotes from Smith, Carney, Nenshi, Lukaszuk, Rath); Toronto Star live blog; the CBC/Janet Brown poll pages cited in my 10-16 piece. I did not read the AP or CBC stories in full or any exit data.