Day Four of the "Energy Ceasefire": Russia Hit All Three Kyiv Heat Plants, Ukraine Hit a Data Center, and Starlink Got a Speed Limit

In yesterday's piece I called the one quiet Russian night the weakest evidence in the table. The night of 10-13/14 settles that. It also added a development that wasn't on my list: SpaceX put a speed limit on military Starlink terminals in Ukraine. The Starlink part is mostly one official's account so far, and I try to say which claims are whose.

Edited the same day to tidy two sentences and to separate what Beskrestnov said from my inference.

The overnight

| | What was reported | Who says | |---|---|---| | Russian strike | 39 ballistic missiles and 128 drones at Kyiv and Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts; Ukrainian air defence downed or jammed 4 missiles and 115 drones | Zelensky, via Ukrainska Pravda | | Damage | 26 power-system facilities and 4 oil-and-gas facilities damaged; at least 600,000 without power | Zelensky, via CNBC | | Kyiv heat plants | All three of Kyiv's combined heat and power plants hit | Prime Minister Koretskyi, via AP | | Russia's own account | "Massive" strike on "energy and communications infrastructure" in Kyiv, the Kyiv region and Kharkiv, six power plants in all, every target serving "military interests" | Russian defence ministry, via Le Monde/AFP and AP | | Ukrainian strike | 902 drones shot down, 180 of them near Moscow; Moscow's mayor says 493 headed for the capital region; four Moscow airports suspended flights and Vnukovo was shut for 8+ hours | Russian defence ministry and Sobyanin, via Kyiv Post | | Where one landed | Balakovo (Saratov): one dead per the governor; Sberbank confirmed an attack on its Saratov data centre and said systems were operating normally | AP, citing TASS |

Casualty counts differ by when the source cut off. RFE/RL's earlier report had three dead and 21 hurt in Kyiv; AP later cites Kyiv police for five dead and 36 injured over the whole Tuesday-evening-to-Wednesday attack, and Al Jazeera counts at least six dead across Ukraine.

What the truce does and doesn't cover

Peskov said today that Trump did not specify what the ceasefire covers, and that "work on this matter is continuing." Moscow's ministry describes its strikes on energy plants as strikes on military-linked targets. On the Ukrainian side, AP says Ukraine's last reported refinery hit was last Friday (10-09), and that Zelensky has agreed to halt the refinery campaign. In the same night Ukraine sent hundreds of drones toward Moscow and apparently hit a data centre. Kyiv Post counts two earlier Yandex data-centre strikes (10-08 and 10-11), and says an oil terminal fire at Rostov-on-Don, which began in an attack on 10-10, was still burning on 10-14.

Neither side can be shown to be hitting something it agreed to leave alone, because no terms have been published. Russia hit the grid and says it was military. Ukraine hit digital infrastructure, which nobody has said an "energy ceasefire" covers or excludes. Since Moscow has not confirmed any terms, I can't tell which of those the Kremlin would call a breach.

The warning gap repeated

Yesterday I wrote that a repeat of the missing missile warning would help separate a detection failure from a signal. It happened: Zelensky says it was the second time this week Ukraine received no advance warning of Russian ballistic launches (CNBC). He again did not name the partners. Trump has said the US has not stopped sharing intelligence, and an anonymous member of Ukraine's parliamentary defence committee told AP the sharing has not stopped. So a second miss is on the record, and nothing public yet says whether it was a failure or a decision.

Starlink

What is established: Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to Zelensky on defence technology, said SpaceX introduced "a speed limit for Starlink terminals operating in motion" overnight, that it currently applies to the military Starshield service package, and that it is set at 100 mph (about 160 km/h). He says the defence forces were not warned and several missions were disrupted (Reuters; Ukrinform). A source in the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps confirmed disruptions to Reuters. AP and CNBC say SpaceX made no immediate comment.

"Speed" here is how fast the terminal is moving, not bandwidth. A terminal on a drone or vehicle loses its link above the threshold.

Two details don't fit together neatly:

• The stated cap is 160 km/h, but the 7th Corps told Reuters, per Tom's Hardware, that links dropped for 10–20 seconds at only 110–120 km/h. The same article says volunteer Serhiy Sternenko, citing military reports, says drops are appearing at 60–70 km/h and the limit is tightening. I haven't seen these confirmed by anyone else.
• There is a precedent with a different motive. On 01-30 SpaceX capped moving terminals in Ukraine at roughly 90 km/h after the defence ministry asked for a fix to Russian use of Starlink on drones; the minister publicly thanked SpaceX (SkyLinker's chronology, which I have not checked against the minister's posts). That cap also arrived without an explanation to users, so an unannounced change isn't new by itself. What differs now is that this one is described as hitting the military service, and Beskrestnov describes it as unannounced and unexplained to the forces.

The motive is Ukraine's inference. Beskrestnov says it "cannot be a coincidence" and is "related to the current political situation," and in a second post that SpaceX likely acted at the Trump administration's request (CNBC). Separately, Musk posted on X on Saturday 10-10 that "Zelensky has gone too far," the same day Trump said Ukraine should stop hitting refineries (Newsweek). A Musk post four days earlier and a throttle overnight are a sequence. Neither source says the one caused the other, and I found no statement from SpaceX or the White House.

The law clock

The diesel deal's legal deadline is four days out. Section 112 of the Graham Act calls for a duty of up to 500% on Russian petroleum products by 10-18 (my 10-11 reading). New since yesterday: RFE/RL reports a letter from 12 bipartisan senators urging Trump to withdraw from the deal, calling it "a gift to our adversary." I did not open the letter itself. I found no duty notice and no waiver certification in the coverage I read this morning.

Still open

• Whether SpaceX confirms, explains or reverses the Starshield limit, and whether the drops at 60–120 km/h are measurement noise or a lower, tightening cap.
• Whether Moscow or Washington will say what the energy ceasefire covers: refineries only, the grid, or data centres.
• Whether a third unflagged missile launch occurs, and who Zelensky means by "partners."
• What the White House does by 10-18 on the Graham Act duty or a waiver.
• Zelensky's London talks with Burnham today and a possible EU summit later this week; I have only seen the pledges (missile deliveries, further sanctions), not the outcome.