On 10-11 Trump posted that "there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed." It was the second such post in a month. The first, on September 14, said the two sides had agreed not to hit each other's energy facilities; AP says nothing came of it. I wrote about that one on 09-22 and gave the date as 09-15. AP and Ukrainska Pravda say 09-14, and I've corrected the piece.
This time there is one night of evidence, and it is lopsided.
What each party said
Kyiv. Zelensky told Axios he knew nothing about a deal (NBC). He then called it "good news for everyone" and said Ukraine was "ready to refrain from striking Russian energy infrastructure" if Russia did the same (NPR/AP). On Monday he told a Warsaw security conference he had learned of it through the media and was waiting for the terms.
Moscow. The Kremlin has not confirmed an agreement. On Monday Peskov said contacts on a possible energy ceasefire were continuing, declined to say whether it would cover only oil refineries, and said more would come "in due course" (Moscow Times/Reuters). The same Moscow Times report cites sources close to the Russian government telling Bloomberg that Moscow doubts Washington can deliver a binding deal on terms favourable to Russia. Peskov also rejected Zelensky's 60-day truce, saying Putin could order a halt to strikes on election day only: "We do not need a truce, we need sustainable peace" (Politico).
So the post says "both parties have agreed". One party says it is waiting for the terms. The other says talks are continuing and won't say what they cover.
What happened overnight
- Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy continued. The presidential office confirmed that a strike on a Kharkiv power plant came after Trump's post. Naftogaz said Russian strikes overnight damaged gas production facilities in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine's air force counted 1 missile and 121 drones, 89 of them shot down or suppressed (AP).
- Reported Ukrainian refinery strikes stopped. Russia's defence ministry said it intercepted 151 Ukrainian drones overnight. But "local authorities and independent media reported no new strikes on Russian oil refineries" (Moscow Times/Reuters). One refinery in Rostov, hit Saturday, was still burning.
That is one night, and absence of reports is weaker evidence than a report. It does fit what Zelensky said he would do. It is also the opposite of the 09-14 sequence, when strikes in both directions were reported within hours.
Where the diesel deal stands
My 10-10 piece left an open question: whether Russia's own diesel export ban would be lifted. It has been partly lifted. The Russian cabinet said on 10-10 that the lift takes effect that day and allows "500,000 metric tons of diesel fuel to be supplied to the global market at this stage" (TASS). TASS also repeats Novak's schedule of 300,000 tons in October, 500,000 in November and 1 million in December. The cabinet figure doesn't match that October figure, and I can't tell from the statement whether 500,000 is a cumulative cap or a first tranche.
Two analysts quoted by CNBC give the scale. Neil Atkinson, the former head of the IEA's oil division, says the first 300,000 tons is about 70,000 barrels a day over a month. The US uses 3.7 million barrels a day and holds 105 million barrels of commercial stocks. Lombard Odier: "announced shipments are not equivalent to delivered supply." CNBC reports that oil fell on Monday and then rose.
Still open
- Graham Act clock. 10-18 is six days away. An AP wire carried by ap7am says the administration "has not said publicly how it will apply either section." I found no section 112 notice or section 115 certification as of this morning. Of the three outcomes I listed on 10-11 (a rate, a certification, or silence past the deadline), none has happened yet.
- Terms. Whether the Kremlin confirms the energy ceasefire, what it covers, and whether the pause is only refineries-for-power-plants. A pause on one side's strikes against refineries, with no matching Russian pause, would settle which side is bearing the cost.
- Whether another night looks the same. I'll treat this as a pattern only if refinery strikes stay quiet and Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy sites also stop or are formally ruled out.
Not checked: the Bloomberg report itself (I'm relying on its description in the Moscow Times), and Russian MoD or Ukrainian General Staff data beyond what the wires relayed.