Brazil's first round was on Sunday, 4 October. Flávio Bolsonaro finished first and Lula second, so they meet in a runoff on 25 October. Most coverage opens with the final margin, 47.03% to 45.16% of valid votes (Americas Quarterly, Alma Preta, which gives 56,104,049 votes to Bolsonaro and 53,876,219 to Lula). Two details in the record are more useful than that margin: how the count moved during the night, and which candidate the polls got wrong.
The count moved 8 points toward Lula
Sunday's live blogs recorded Bolsonaro's share of valid votes at each stage:
| Counted | Bolsonaro | Lula | Gap | |---|---|---|---| | 1.23% of sections | 48.85% | 42.50% | 6.4 | | ~30% of ballot boxes | 50.7% | 41.1% | 9.6 | | 64.81% of sections | 49.58% | 42.25% | 7.3 | | 90.4% of sections | 48.03% | 43.99% | 4.0 | | final | 47.03% | 45.16% | 1.9 |
The first three rows come from Jornal do Comércio's live blog, which timestamps each one. The 30% row is from the headline of BBC News Brasil's live page, which I saw as a search result and did not open. Lula's gap to Bolsonaro closed steadily from the 30% mark to the end.
My explanation is an inference. At 18:32, JC noted that Lula was holding margins above 55% of valid votes in Bahia, Pernambuco, Ceará, Paraíba and Alagoas while counting continued. Strongholds reporting at different speeds would produce this pattern. I did not find a source that gives the reporting order, so treat that as a guess. The table itself is documented. Anyone who read "Bolsonaro 50.7%" at 30% counted and "47.03%" at the end saw a seven-point change in one night.
The polls missed Bolsonaro's number, not Lula's
Alma Preta lists the final polls from 3 October, with valid-vote shares:
| Poll | Lula | Bolsonaro | |---|---|---| | Datafolha | 45% | 42% | | CNT/MDA | 47.8% | 42.1% | | Quaest | 46% | 45% | | Result | 45.16% | 47.03% |
Lula's final share was inside the range of the three polls: Datafolha was almost exact, and Quaest and MDA were slightly high. Bolsonaro finished 2 to 5 points above all three. The polls' real error was on Bolsonaro, and it is larger than "Lula was ahead and lost" suggests. The other candidates together took 7.8% (9.3 million votes, from Reuters's results page snippet; I could not open the page).
Reuters analysts, as relayed by Al Jazeera, say some voters who preferred another candidate voted for Bolsonaro to beat Lula, a vote analysts had expected only in the second round. Rafael Favetti told Reuters that this reduces Bolsonaro's room to grow in the runoff, "precisely because that support has already been front-loaded." Americas Quarterly describes it as strategic voting. This is analysts' reading of why. The polls and results do not show it.
What the runoff has to overcome
- Congress. The PL won 28 of 81 Senate seats and 121 of 513 Chamber seats, the largest bench in both houses (Americas Quarterly, linking Senate and Chamber reports I did not open).
- Abstention. It was 21.08%, the highest since 1998, per the same article. Lula said he will focus on non-voters. Le Monde puts them at 30 million, Alma Preta at nearly 33.5 million, and Lula himself said "more than 28 million". The gap between Bolsonaro and Lula is about 2.2 million votes (Alma Preta).
- Precedent. Alma Preta says that a Lula win after trailing in the first round would be a first since the return to democracy. I haven't verified that.
- A rumored October surprise. Brian Winter of Americas Quarterly wrote that the "bomba", more Banco Master evidence supposedly held for the second round, "could well be an urban myth". He says he has heard of it since June.
Small discrepancies
- The headline percentage varies with the stage of the count. The WSJ reported 47.31% of valid votes. I could not read the article, so I don't know what time that was taken. Le Monde, Americas Quarterly and Alma Preta have 47.03%. Reuters's page shows 47.0% and 45.1% with a total of roughly 119.2 million valid votes. That is the same result at a slightly different moment.
- Jair Bolsonaro is described as imprisoned in some outlets and under house arrest in others. NPR and the LA Times say he serves his 27-year sentence at home, moved from prison for health reasons. Al Jazeera still says he "serves" the sentence in prison.
Still open
- Whether the minor candidates' voters moved late. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together got about 5.3 million votes, say they won't endorse (Al Jazeera).
- Whether any runoff polls show a different pattern from the first-round polls.
- The Banco Master investigations that touched Flávio Bolsonaro and several Supreme Court justices dominated the campaign. I have not read the primary documents.
- I have not seen the TSE's own results page; its app wouldn't load for me. The final figures above come from the press reports that cite it.