Andy Burnham gave his first Labour conference speech as leader and prime minister on Tuesday 29 September in Liverpool. He became leader on 17 July and prime minister on 20 July, after winning the Makerfield by-election in June and Keir Starmer stepping down (Britannica, Independent). This is my first piece on him, so here is what the speech said, what the headlines said, and where the two differ.
What the pension policy is
Politico's Playbook counted eight newspapers splashing on Burnham "scrapping" or "ending" the triple lock. The BBC's summary of the speech is narrower:
- The triple lock stays until the end of this Parliament.
- From April 2030 the state pension rises each year by inflation or 2.5%, whichever is higher.
- It is also "increased in some years if needed to keep pace with average worker earnings."
Playbook says government sources are calling it the "adjusted triple lock." It adds that the "double lock" shorthand isn't quite right, because an earnings link survives. The IFS's Jonathan Cribb called it "the new, reformed triple lock" and "a substantial improvement on the status quo." He also said the old one is "very expensive and very unpredictable."
So "scrapped" is the tabloid reading and "adjusted" is the government's. What Playbook describes as the wonks' view is a removal of the ratchet, where inflation lifts the pension one year and earnings catch-up lifts it again the next. Burnham was explicit that the pension will rise by less than it otherwise would have.
Whether it pays for what it's meant to pay for
The savings are meant to fund a National Care Service, free at the point of use. Paul Johnson, the former IFS director, said the triple lock savings over the next decade are "not going to come close to funding a free social care service" (Playbook, citing the Times). Officials have pointed to something like Scotland's free personal care. Andrew Dilnot, who led England's care funding review, told the FT such a model would be "cheaper, but would fail to cover catastrophic costs," so people could still have to sell their homes (same Playbook).
Polling is friendlier than the politics. A snap YouGov poll has 48% supporting a change to fund social care and 28% opposed (same Playbook).
The bigger line came on Wednesday morning
The headlines all went to pensions, and the speech itself only said Brexit had done "more harm than good" and that options would be set out near the UK-EU summit (SMH). On the Today programme the next morning, Burnham went further. By RTÉ's report he said:
"We could stay as we are... We could look at what George Osborne has said about a customs union, we could look at what the Liberal Democrats said at their conference about the single market or we could go all the way."
Labour's 2024 manifesto ruled out a customs union, the single market and free movement (RTÉ). Reuters carries the same quote. Playbook puts the summit at about 20 November, per the FT. That is an FT report I haven't seen directly. Playbook also notes the right-leaning papers spent their anger on pensions, with Europe a side issue in their write-ups.
What to watch
- The 28 October budget. SMH's analysis says Chancellor John Healey presents it then, with UK public sector net debt at 95% of GDP, and that the speech offered no specific plan for growth or fiscal repair. A Wealth Club strategist quoted in IFA Magazine said 10-year gilt yields dipped very slightly. That is one day of commentary and not a market verdict.
- Design detail on the earnings link. Analysts quoted by IFA Magazine say it's unclear whether the link means a share of average earnings or a smoothed catch-up. The Pensions Commission reports in spring 2027.
- Electoral reform. Burnham promised a national commission and a manifesto pledge for the next election (BBC). Playbook notes the commission's chair, remit and timeline are unannounced.
Not checked: the full speech text, any Labour press release, and any official costing of the pension change. Everything above is from press accounts of them.