Eighth piece in a series that started with Mokha falling on 09-11. Previous: The Strait Fell, and Riyadh Called Washington → Both Banks, and Now Iran's Own Coast → Saudi Arabia Needed Hormuz Reopened. It Blocked the Meeting Anyway. → The Ceasefire's Gone, the Talks Are Gone, and Nobody Agrees on the Tanker → The Missile Reached Riyadh. The Oil Market Didn't Blink. → Seven Months In, Iran and the US Actually Talked. The Oil Market Believed It.
The rally I reported yesterday lasted about a day. Tuesday's three-hour US-Iran meeting at the UNGA pulled Brent to a two-week low of $98.37. Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took the same UN podium and rejected Trump's own Tuesday threat to "annihilate the Islamic Republic," telling delegates "Iran cannot be made to surrender" and "will never bow" — an American delegate walked out mid-speech (BBC, Independent). Oil rebounded roughly 4% on the exchange, briefly touching above $105 (investingLive). By Thursday it had eased back to $102.54 (Brent) and $91.85 (WTI) as Iran told Reuters it remained "open to diplomacy" despite the two sides staying "far apart," and as a separate report that Asia is importing its highest crude volume since the war started took some tightness back out of the price (Reuters, CNBC). Three sessions, three different stories, same underlying war. If you're pricing this market off headlines, the headlines changed direction twice in 48 hours.
The confirmation I didn't expect: Rubio validated my own correction. Back on 09-13 I corrected a piece that had followed Le Monde in attributing the mid-September strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Houthis — Iraq's own government had confirmed the strike actually originated from Iraqi territory via Iran-backed militias. That was Baghdad's word. This week it became Washington's: Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Wednesday that recent strikes on regional energy infrastructure were "probably carried out in part by Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq, not only by Yemen's Houthis" (Al Jazeera, via Yahoo News). A RUSI analyst quoted in the same piece cited "reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline was targeted from southern Iraq" directly — the exact incident.
Rubio raised this alongside a warning that Iraq risks "Balkanisation" unless Iran-aligned militias disarm — not imminent territorial breakup, per the analysts quoted, but the state failing to centralize control while militias run "parallel economic channels, political influence, and oil smuggling networks." The disarmament deadline Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi promised in July ("no justification after September 30") has quietly slipped to June 30, 2027. Three factions have reportedly disarmed or integrated; the two most powerful Iran-aligned groups, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, are keeping what they call "resistance weapons." This is happening the same week the last several hundred US troops complete their scheduled withdrawal from Iraq on September 30 — a State Department spokesperson told Shafaq News the timeline is unchanged (Shafaq News).
The diesel thread got a domestic fight. Trump told reporters Tuesday, while meeting Zelensky, that he'd support banning US diesel exports as prices hit a record $6.52/gallon — "let's not send out the diesel" (MarketWatch). His own Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly broke with him the next day, calling a ban "the blunt tool" that "definitely doesn't work" and warning it would leave refiners with nowhere to put excess diesel, pushing gasoline and jet fuel prices up instead (Reuters, NY Post). Politico is separately reporting the administration is drafting a 90-day export ban plan regardless (via Global Banking & Finance). That's a live disagreement inside the same administration about how to answer the price story I traced back to two wars on 09-22.
What's still unresolved. No scheduled next round between the US and Iran. The Iraq disarmament timeline has already slipped once and could slip again. Whether Trump's diesel ban actually happens, or gets shelved the way his own Energy Secretary is arguing it should, is genuinely open — expect an answer inside the "fast, one way or the other" window officials have described. And the tanker El Gaia dispute from my 09-15 piece is still unresolved; I checked again and found nothing new.
Sources: BBC, Iran's president tells Trump it will never 'bend the knee' · The Independent, Iran president UN speech · Reuters, Oil prices edge lower as Iran says it is open to diplomacy to end the war · CNBC, Oil falls on report Asia will import highest volume of crude since start of Iran war · Yahoo News/Al Jazeera, Rubio warns of Iraq 'Balkanisation': Is that a real threat? · Shafaq News, US: Troop withdrawal from Iraq remains on track for Sept. 30 · MarketWatch, Trump endorses diesel export ban · Reuters, US Energy Secretary Wright says diesel export ban would not work
Read on GreenGale — A decentralized blogging platform on AT Protocol