Day 1685 in the circus: Moscow protests, Fedorov’s “run for your life”

By Oscar Tierney (@oscartierney25.bsky.social)
Published:

moscow protests are back, fedorovs got a drone swarm plan straight out of a sci-fi fever dream, xi is watching with his calculator, and shiryayev is still drawing red lines like a toddler with a sugar rush. meanwhile, eight more russian pilots just clocked out for good. the only thing moving faster than russian excuses is the price of gas in rostov.

moscow’s protest season: now with extra paranoia

protests in moscow are like russian elections, staged, suppressed, and somehow still livelier than a duma session. but this time, the vibe is off. people arent just whining about buckwheat or missing cheese, its full-on “how do i get out before the next mobilization?” energy. voting for the communists as a protest? cute, but putin only notices when his buddies buy condos in dubai instead of sochi.

riot cops treat peaceful rallies like a crossfit warmup, but the regime’s own paranoia is doing more to radicalize folks than any telegram channel. every crackdown just stacks up more resentment, another reason for ivan to dream about tbilisi or yerevan. only thing stopping half the country from bolting is the price of a train ticket and border guards trained to spot “draft dodger face” at 50 meters.

meanwhile, in ukraine, its day 26 of protests and not a single cop in sight. people gather, shout, wave signs, and the government just lets them. no riot vans, no “random” arrests, no babushka getting body-slammed for holding a daffodil. wild concept, a state not terrified of its own citizens. in russia, the only thing more dangerous than a protest is a protester with a vpn.

fedorov’s dronepocalypse and the airport panic

the atlantic dropped a piece on fedorov’s “run for your life” plan, aka mmdm, the moscow airport dronepocalypse. the idea? launch up to a thousand ai drones in one night, turn sheremetyevo into a bad sci-fi set, and watch the regime scramble like ants at a picnic. thirteen airports in the rostov zone shut down just from the threat. astrakhan, volgograd, sochi, even grozny, all closed for business. not nato, not some secret western weapon, just a bunch of guys with laptops and a grudge.

this is “second army of the world” in 2026, where a handful of drones can shut down half the airspace and the only counter is to close everything and pray. import substitution? more like import humiliation. the only thing russia’s making at scale is excuses and new graves.

the only thing russia exports faster than oil is excuses for why nothing ever improves except the number of graves.

front line fairy tales and the blame olympics

the “vostok” group is trying to outflank orikhiv, dreaming of a big push for the “dnepr” group. the plan? smash the ukrainian defense, roll through zaporizhzhia, and finally get some good news for state tv. reality: more burnt-out tanks, more “heroic” obituaries, and the only thing advancing is the number of telegram channels arguing about whose fault it is this week.

shiryayev’s got more plot twists than a telenovela. last week, he’s screaming about a “cauldron” around kupyansk, painting red lines like a kid with new crayons. this week, its “we’re regrouping,” “the enemy is suffering catastrophic losses,” and “trust the plan.” the 20th army command dodges responsibility like incoming artillery. no one fired, no one demoted, just another round of “we’ll get them next time, boys.” if accountability was a russian value, half the general staff would be flipping burgers.

even the z-bloggers are cracking. diehards are demanding answers, asking why mobilization is “voluntary” but everyone’s getting a letter. they want the truth, but all they get is shiryayev’s bedtime stories. the only thing more inflated than russian casualty numbers is the egos writing these reports.

air force attrition and the manpower barrel

eight more pilots down this week. three planes and a helicopter torched in one day. ukrainian fpv drones are basically the grim reaper with a gopro now. the regime cant replace pilots fast enough, so whats the solution? recruit from women’s prisons. no joke. special battalions of female inmates sent to drag wounded conscripts off the line. officially, this project “doesnt exist.” unofficially, the manpower barrel isnt just empty, its got a hole in the bottom.

the fuel situation? gasoline is now a luxury item. rostov, krasnodar, volgograd, everywhere you look, lines at the pump, prices through the roof, and the only thing moving fast is the black market. import substitution? sure, if you count walking as a substitute for driving. the regime blames “western sabotage,” but everyone knows the real culprit is a system that cant organize a supply chain to save its life. the only thing more broken than the fuel market is the kremlin’s grip on reality.

xi’s poker face and the regime’s slow collapse

xi jinping is just chilling, watching putin threaten the world every tuesday and deliver two dead conscripts and a stolen washing machine. no big statements, no dramatic moves, just a poker face and a calculator. the chinese arent here to save russia, theyre here to buy up the scraps when the fire sale starts. every time moscow begs for help, beijing raises the price. thats not an alliance, thats a clearance rack.

zoom out and the regime is running on fumes, literally and figuratively. the army’s burning through bodies and gear faster than they can replace them. the air force is getting shredded by garage-built drones. the economy’s in freefall, the oligarchs are cashing out, and the only thing the propaganda machine can offer is more fairy tales about “denazification” and “red lines.” the people? protesting, plotting their escape, or just trying to survive another week without getting drafted or evicted.

but dont worry, the kremlin’s got a plan. more mobilization, more censorship, more “patriotic” rallies with free sausage. maybe if they shout loud enough about western plots, nobody will notice the country’s falling apart. maybe if they arrest enough protesters, the rest will just shut up and go back to watching kiselyov’s nightly neuromadness. maybe if they close enough airports, the drones will just get bored and go home.

the punchline: running in circles, digging deeper

none of it’s working. the regime’s biggest export isnt oil or gas, its excuses for why nothing ever improves except the number of graves. every new mobilization wave just makes more people want to run. every crackdown just makes the protests angrier. every lie from shiryayev and his crew gets debunked before the ink’s dry. the only thing the kremlin’s winning is the race to the bottom.

ukraine? still standing, still innovating, still fighting. while russia’s busy recruiting from prisons and shutting down airports, ukraine’s tech scene is building smarter drones, better defenses, and a civil society that actually trusts its own people. the contrast couldnt be clearer. one side’s stuck in a loop of fear, lies, and decay. the other’s moving forward, even under fire.

day 1685, and the circus is still spinning. moscow’s boiling, the regime’s flailing, the air force is shrinking, and the only thing more mysterious than xi’s next move is how long this tent can stay up before it all collapses. but hey, at least the propaganda’s still free. you just pay with your sanity.

russian cope is the only thing they can mass produce without western parts.