Day 1669 in the Ruzzian circus, and the plot’s got more twists

By Jose Cochran (@josecochran2016.bsky.social)
Published:

day 1669 in the ruzzian circus and the plot is twisting harder than a vatnik trying to explain why the ruble is fine. trump is “hitting putin” on truth social, rubikon mercs are getting mulched, kremlin officials are running for the exits, and the elections are so filthy you need a tetanus shot just to watch the news. lets break down this weeks episode of “who wants to be a failed empire” because the only thing the kremlin is producing faster than excuses is fresh batches of cope.

trump vs putin: the group chat wars

trump sneezes in moscow’s direction and russian state tv hits the panic button. this week’s “hit” on putin? not a drone, not sanctions, just a truth social post and some backroom phone calls. the man’s foreign policy is a group chat with extra steps. he declared an “energy truce” between russia and ukraine, which was news to literally everyone except trump. even the z bloggers had to pause their daily “ukraine is finished” routine to check if they missed a memo. spoiler: they didnt, because there wasnt one.

but lets not act like trump’s tough talk is about principles. the only thing he’s consistent on is being inconsistent. one week its “missiles for ukraine,” next week its “secret ceasefires” and energy deals that exist only in his head. kremlin tv spins it as “trump is our guy, he’ll end the war,” but the only thing trump is loyal to is trump. if dunking on putin gets him a headline, he’ll do it. if being putin’s bestie gets him a headline, he’ll do that too. the only thing more unstable than trump’s foreign policy is the ruble.

the only thing more loyal than a russian official is a stray dog with a sausage.

rubikon gets steamrolled, z bloggers get creative

rubikon, one of those “private military” outfits that’s basically wagner with a worse logo, got absolutely clapped this week. russian telegram channels are melting down, trying to explain how their elite mercs keep getting turned into fertilizer. the cope is olympic-level:

anything but the obvious: the russian war machine is running on fumes and tiktok morale. every time they lose another batch of “volunteers,” the z crowd just moves the goalposts and declares victory. russian victory is like the soviet five-year plans, always just around the corner, never actually arriving.

meanwhile, every loss gets laundered through the propaganda machine. if ukraine hits a russian oil depot, its “terrorism.” if russia bombs a hospital, its “denazification.” if a russian official gets caught with a suitcase of euros, its “western provocation.” the mental gymnastics would make an olympic gymnast pull a hamstring. when all else fails, blame nato, the cia, or “internal enemies.” the only thing more overused than these excuses is the phrase “unprecedented sanctions.”

the great escape: officials bail, regime wobbles

russian officials are bailing on the country like rats off a sinking ship. you know its bad when the people who spent years telling everyone how great russia is are suddenly “on vacation” in dubai, deleting their vk accounts, and quietly buying up property in serbia. the regime’s inner circle is starting to look like musical chairs, except the music is fsb agents knocking on doors.

every week, another mid-level bureaucrat gets “arrested for corruption,” which is kremlin-speak for “fell out of favor” or “knew too much.” the rest are busy updating their linkedin profiles and pretending they always loved the west. loyalty in the kremlin lasts about as long as a conscript’s boots.

inside russia, the mood is getting darker. propaganda can only paper over so much. when your neighbor disappears, your cousin gets mobilized, and your paycheck buys less every month, even the most loyal vatnik starts to wonder if maybe, just maybe, the regime isnt telling the whole truth. but open dissent is still risky, just ask the journalists and random telegram admins who keep “falling out of windows.” most people just keep their heads down, grumble in private, and hope the storm passes.

elections: choose your own adventure, authoritarian edition

the kremlin’s idea of democracy is so warped, even north korea is taking notes. ballot stuffing, intimidation, “technical glitches,” and a healthy dose of “oops, all the opposition candidates got disqualified.” the only thing uglier than these elections is the wallpaper in a russian ministry office. state tv will tell you its all “transparent and fair,” but the only thing transparent is how desperate they are to keep the illusion going.

meanwhile, armed goons in masks are hanging around polling stations, ice-style chaos is being imported from the us playbook, and the only people actually excited to vote are the ones getting paid in food parcels. the regime’s biggest export is fake ballots and fake turnout numbers. the real opposition isnt in the streets, its in the quiet refusal to believe the bullshit.

lets talk about the fake referendums, because those are always good for a laugh. the kremlin’s idea of “self-determination” is rolling up with a bunch of guys in balaclavas and a stack of pre-filled ballots. “congratulations, you’re now part of russia! ignore the tanks outside.” the international community isnt buying it, but the regime doesnt care. as long as they can show a map with more red, they can pretend theyre winning. meanwhile, the actual front lines keep moving the wrong way, and the only thing expanding is the list of war crimes.

economy: import substitution, meme coin edition

the russian economy is looking rougher than a conscript’s boots after a month in the trenches. “import substitution” is the national joke, half the stuff labeled “made in russia” is just chinese junk with a new sticker. the ruble is doing its best impression of a meme coin, and the only thing keeping the lights on is oil money that’s getting harder to launder every month.

the regime keeps promising “breakthroughs” and “new partnerships,” but all they’re really exporting is brain drain and excuses. every time a tech worker or doctor bounces to georgia or armenia, the kremlin loses another piece of its future. but hey, at least they’ve still got plenty of tiktok generals and telegram “experts” to keep the cope flowing.

sanctions arent a magic bullet, but theyre slowly choking off the regime’s options. every new workaround just adds another layer of corruption and incompetence, and the only people getting rich are the ones already planning their exit strategy. the only thing more inflated than the ruble is the kremlin’s sense of its own genius.

kremlin infighting and nuclear blackmail

the kremlin’s infighting is getting spicier. every week, another general or fsb boss gets sidelined, arrested, or “retires for health reasons.” the power struggles are less game of thrones and more “who wants to avoid the gulag?” the only thing holding the regime together is mutual distrust and the fear of what comes next. putin’s inner circle is shrinking, and the loyalty tests are getting weirder. at this rate, the last man standing will be the guy who knows how to fix the wi-fi in the bunker.

nuclear blackmail is still on the menu, because when all else fails, threaten to blow up the planet. every tuesday, some kremlin mouthpiece goes on tv and reminds everyone that russia has nukes, as if that’s supposed to make up for losing another batch of conscripts. the west mostly rolls its eyes at this point, but inside russia, the fearmongering works. “dont complain, or the west will nuke us!” same old playbook, just with more radiation.

disinformation 2.0: same trash, new filters

the kremlin’s gotten slicker, but the content’s still trash. deepfakes, bot farms, fake leaks, and the occasional “anonymous source” claiming ukraine’s about to collapse. the goal isnt to convince, its to confuse. flood the zone with so much noise that nobody knows what’s real. but the cracks are showing. even the most loyal z bloggers are starting to sound tired, recycling the same talking points and hoping nobody notices the gaps. the regime’s biggest enemy isnt nato or the cia, its reality.

meanwhile, the war crimes laundering is basically a reflex now. bomb a school? “it was a military target.” deport kids? “we’re saving them from nazis.” the un keeps dropping receipts, but the kremlin just shrugs and says, “fake news.” the world is watching, taking notes, and tightening the screws. the only thing the regime is laundering faster than money is its own reputation.

ukraine: still standing, still fighting

ukraine’s not waiting for a miracle. the tech boom is real, the army’s still pushing back, and every time russia tries to flex, they end up losing another oil depot or a general with a suspiciously short lifespan. the kremlin’s “second army of the world” is now mostly famous for losing to tractors, cornfields, and the occasional angry babushka. the only thing they’re winning is the race to see how fast you can turn a country into a meme.

the kremlin’s dream of a quick victory is dead, buried, and probably looted for scrap metal. the real story isnt about trump, or rubikon, or the latest batch of fake ballots. its about a regime that’s run out of ideas, running out of friends, and running out of time. the only thing they’ve got left is the circus, and even that’s starting to look empty.

so yeah, day 1669. trump “hit” putin, rubikon got wrecked, the officials are running, and the elections are a dumpster fire. same circus, different clowns. and as always, the only thing more tragic than the regime’s failures is how hard they try to pretend its all going according to plan. pass the popcorn, this show’s not over yet.

russian victory is always just one more mobilization away, one more fake referendum, one more “secret plan.” meanwhile, the only thing getting liberated is the kremlin’s stash of excuses.