Alright, let’s take a stroll through the Russian circus on day 1663

By James Walsh (@jameswalsh2019.bsky.social)
Published:

day 1663 and the russian “three-day war” is now old enough to have a midlife crisis and a therapist on speed dial. today’s circus: america’s peace plan reruns, taganrog’s air defense takes a nap, russia’s gas stations run dry, and the eternal vatnik riddle—how does this end? grab your popcorn, this is a full-length clown show.

america’s “peace plan” rerun

so jared kushner, trump’s son-in-law and america’s answer to a beige wall, beams into the YES forum in kyiv to drop the hottest take: “putin wants peace.” the room laughs, because even in a war zone, you need comic relief. kushner’s pitch? the problem is ukraine won’t give up donbas, and trump’s job is to find a “compromise.” translation: “what if you just let the guy who invaded you keep the stuff he stole? wouldn’t that be neat?”

this is the same “peace plan” the kremlin’s been pushing since 2014, just with a new american accent. the formula never changes: russia invades, grabs land, screams “negotiations,” and waits for someone in the west to say, “well, maybe we should just let them have it so things calm down.” it’s like a mugger demanding your wallet, then offering to “compromise” by letting you keep the coins. the only thing more recycled than these proposals is the average russian washing machine.

the west keeps floating these “compromises” like they’re new, but it’s just the same snake oil in a different bottle. appeasement isn’t peace, it’s just an IOU for the next war.

taganrog’s air defense: out to lunch

meanwhile, back in russia, taganrog’s air defense has officially clocked out. you know it’s bad when even the s-400s are calling in sick. ukrainian drones have been making regular visits, and the only thing standing between them and their targets is a stern look and maybe a babushka with a broom.

the regime’s answer? pretend nothing happened, blame nato, and hope nobody notices the smoking holes in the tarmac. it’s the same energy as a landlord ignoring the mold in your apartment—if you don’t talk about it, maybe it’ll go away. every russian victory gets announced from a town 600 km from the town they actually lost. those maps are doing serious cardio.

the z bloggers treat every ukrainian drone strike as proof that “russia is winning.” taganrog gets hit? “it’s all part of the plan.” at this point, their job is less about reporting and more about inventing new ways to say “we meant to do that.”

gasoline crisis: running on fumes

but let’s talk about the real catastrophe: russia’s gasoline crisis. no, not the kind where you have to wait five minutes at the pump. we’re talking “tractors dead in the fields, ambulances running on fumes, and entire cities bone dry.” saratov, rostov, samara—pick a region, any region, and you’ll find empty tanks and angry drivers. even st. petersburg, the regime’s favorite potemkin village, finally had to admit there’s a problem.

how did we get here? simple. russia’s been exporting fuel like there’s no tomorrow to keep the war machine greased and the budget afloat. domestic supply? who cares, as long as the oligarchs get their cut and the army can keep burning diesel in the donbas. now the shelves are bare, the ruble’s in freefall, and the only thing flowing freely is the propaganda. “it’s all the west’s fault,” they say, as if biden personally siphoned the tanks dry.

the regime’s biggest export isn’t oil or gas, it’s excuses. every time something breaks—whether it’s air defense, the ruble, or basic law and order—the answer is always the same: “it’s not our fault.” meanwhile, the only thing growing in russia is the list of people trying to get out.

front lines and home front: same old meat grinder

meanwhile, on the front lines, nothing’s changed except the body count. russian command is still obsessed with “infiltration tactics”—small groups sneaking around, trying to outflank ukrainian positions. it’s like watching a toddler play hide and seek in a glass house. the big push around kostyantynivka? still stuck. the only thing advancing is the list of excuses on russian state tv.

and then there’s the home front, where things are getting weirder by the day. in a russian border town, a woman refuses to talk to a soldier in uniform. two days later, she’s kidnapped in broad daylight by a group of men, two of whom are active-duty military. the regime’s response? silence. because when your entire system runs on violence and impunity, what’s one more crime between friends? the only surprise is that anyone’s surprised.

the z bloggers, those professional cope merchants, treat every disaster as a win. gasoline runs out? “we’re just saving it for the offensive.” the front line collapses? “we’re regrouping.” it’s cope olympics every day.

how does this end? spoiler: not with a handshake

here’s the part where the kremlin and its bootlickers start foaming at the mouth about “negotiations.” every time ukraine gets the upper hand, suddenly it’s time for “dialogue.” the same people who spent years screaming “to kyiv in three days” now want to talk about “compromise” because their army can’t even take a cornfield without losing a battalion. it’s like the school bully asking for a truce after getting punched in the nose.

let’s be real. there’s only one way this ends: russia leaves, ukraine gets its land back, and the regime finally admits that “second army of the world” was just a marketing slogan scribbled on a vodka napkin. anything less is just a pause button for the next invasion. the west’s job isn’t to find a “compromise” that rewards aggression, it’s to make sure the bill comes due for every inch of stolen territory and every war crime laundered through state tv.

the only thing russia’s managed to denazify is its own future—straight into the ditch.

while russia’s busy exporting chaos and importing excuses, ukraine’s tech sector is booming, the army’s getting smarter, and the west is finally learning that “dialogue” with the kremlin is just a fancy word for “let’s see what we can get away with next.”

so next time you hear about a “peace plan” that sounds like “just let russia keep the loot,” remember: appeasement isn’t peace, it’s just an IOU for the next war. the only real “compromise” is the one where the regime compromises with reality, packs up, and goes home. until then, expect more drone strikes, more empty gas stations, and more american diplomats trying to sell the same old snake oil with a new label.

i’ll be here, collecting vatnik cope like pokémon cards and waiting for the next episode of “how not to run a country.” spoiler alert: it’s always the same plot, just with fewer working tractors and more missing air defense.

imagine being so free that the bravest thing you do all year is repost the state and pray nobody asks where your son went.