day 1668 and the kremlin still thinks it can gaslight the planet into believing its not broke, not surrounded, and definitely not getting clapped by a country they said would fold in a week. spoiler: the only thing folding is the ruble, and maybe putin’s patience every time he checks the price of gas or the flight logs to dubai. welcome back to “how not to run an empire,” starring sanctions, sabotage, and a regime that thinks “import substitution” means swapping out working parts for memes and duct tape.
sanctions: the real siege
the kremlin’s latest cope is “the us has besieged putin.” sounds like biden’s outside the kremlin with a megaphone, right? nah, it’s just sanctions, tech bans, and a slow economic chokehold that’s got russian business gasping for air. the west didn’t need tanks, they just turned off the money tap and watched the oligarchs sweat through their italian suits.
every week, another western company bounces, another russian business folds, and the only thing growing is the list of things you can’t buy unless you’re cool with “made in russia” meaning “might explode.” the regime blames “speculators” and “external enemies,” but the real enemy is basic math and the fact that bombing your own refineries with “mysterious” drone strikes tends to mess with supply.
the only siege is the one putin built himself, brick by brick, with sanctions for mortar and drone strikes for windows.
economy: lada in january vibes
the russian economy is doing its best lada impression: won’t start, makes weird noises, and the mechanic already moved to armenia. gas prices? through the roof. not just “ouch,” but “i’ll sell my kidney for a liter of ai-95.” over half the gas stations in big cities are out of the good stuff, and the rest are selling whatever’s left at prices that make even moscow’s elite blink.
remember when russia was the gas station of europe? now they can’t even fill up their own tanks. the regime’s answer is to blame “speculators” and “external enemies,” but the real problem is bombing your own refineries and pretending it’s a western plot.
- restaurants closing
- transport companies parking their fleets and firing drivers
- service sector shrinking faster than putin’s approval ratings outside of state tv
china’s not lining up to bail you out, and even the central asian republics are getting tired of russian “expats” showing up and acting like they own the place.
air force: discount airshow
ukrainian strikes keep making the russian air force look like a discount airshow, except the only stunts are “how fast can you crash” and “can you land without a runway.” every time a z blogger posts a smug video about “unstoppable russian aviation,” a ukrainian drone drops in to remind them that air superiority is just a phrase you use when you’re losing planes faster than you can paint zs on them.
the best part? half the time, the russians can’t even agree on what hit them. was it a drone? sabotage? bad maintenance? all of the above, probably. when your spare parts come from aliexpress and your pilots are on telegram more than in the cockpit, this is what you get.
the “second army of the world” is basically a frankenstein’s monster held together with black market glue and wishful thinking.
missiles, tech, and the import substitution meme
russian missiles are still flying, but crack open the guidance systems and what do you find? american chips, western components, and a whole lot of “import substitution” that looks suspiciously like smuggling. the kremlin loves to brag about “domestic innovation,” but every time ukraine downs a kinzhal or an iskander, the circuit boards read like a best buy inventory.
sanctions are biting, and the only reason russia’s still launching anything is because they’re stripping old washing machines and bribing middlemen in dubai. the “second army of the world” is a meme with a budget, and the budget’s running out.
- missiles with western chips
- drones with chinese batteries
- tanks with more rust than armor
front lines: strategic withdrawal aka run away
the front lines are moving, and not the way the kremlin wants. ukrainian brigades are pushing north of lyman, smashing russian units and liberating villages. every time a z blogger posts a map with new “red zones,” the next day it’s blue again. the russian army’s big innovation is “strategic withdrawal,” which is just a fancy way of saying “run away and blame the locals.”
the only thing advancing is the list of excuses:
- “we were outnumbered”
- “it was a tactical regrouping”
- “nato did it”
at some point, you’d think they’d run out of ways to say “we lost,” but the creativity of russian cope is truly endless.
home front: squeeze and spin
russian society is getting squeezed from every angle. prices up, jobs down, and the only thing growing is the list of banned websites and the number of people getting arrested for memes. the regime’s answer? more mobilization drills, more “volunteer” contracts, and more promises that “victory is just around the corner.” meanwhile, the only thing around the corner is another round of layoffs and maybe a new batch of conscripts who thought they were signing up for a desk job.
the propaganda machine is working overtime, but even the diehards are starting to crack. z bloggers are fighting with the ministry of defense, each blaming the other for losses and screwups. the kremlin’s trying to keep everyone in line, but when your main export is excuses and your main import is body bags, morale tends to dip.
the scariest weapon in the russian arsenal isn’t a nuke, it’s the smell of desperation coming off the regime every time another refinery goes up in smoke.
elections: vote early, vote often, vote from the grave
let’s not forget the circus that is russian elections. three days of “voting” so rigged even the local communists are calling bullshit. in altai, election officials are adding people to the home voting lists without even asking. activists are cold-calling voters to check if they’re alive, because apparently, in russia, you can vote from the grave as long as you check the right box.
the regime’s so desperate for legitimacy they’ll count your vote whether you want it or not. meanwhile, the only real choice most russians get is “which neighbor is moving to kazakhstan next?”
- “home voting” for people who didn’t ask
- activists checking if voters are alive
- ballots counted whether you want it or not
propaganda: bomb, deny, distract, repeat
ukrainian missiles are hitting inside russia, not just the border towns but deep enough to make the regime’s “homeland is safe” narrative look like a bad joke. oil refineries, ammo dumps, airfields, nothing’s off limits. the kremlin’s response? deny, deflect, distract, declare victory, repeat. it’s like watching a magician who only knows one trick and keeps dropping the cards.
the propaganda machine spins every strike as “minor damage” or “quickly repaired,” but satellite photos and the smell of burning oil say otherwise. every hit means less fuel for the front, more panic in the rear, and another round of excuses on state tv.
meanwhile, back in ukraine, the hits keep coming. russian missile and drone attacks still kill civilians, torch warehouses, and wreck infrastructure. the difference? ukraine adapts, rebuilds, and keeps fighting. russia just digs deeper into the same playbook: bomb, deny, blame nato, repeat. the only innovation is in the excuses.
big picture: fortress russia is a leaky shed
the us and its allies didn’t need to invade russia to “besiege” putin. they just let him keep digging. sanctions, tech bans, and a steady drip of ukrainian strikes have turned the russian war machine into a rust bucket. the economy’s tanking, the military’s bleeding, and the only thing the regime can offer is more propaganda and less reality.
every time they say “we’re winning,” check the price of gas, the number of flights out of moscow, and the latest satellite photos of another smoking crater. ukraine’s not just surviving, it’s adapting, innovating, and hitting back. russia’s stuck in a loop: bomb, deny, distract, repeat. the world’s watching, the regime’s flailing, and the only thing more broken than a russian oil refinery is the kremlin’s grip on reality.
so yeah, day 1668. putin’s “fortress russia” is looking more like a leaky shed, the gas station’s out of gas, and the only thing flying reliably is the propaganda. the us didn’t need to storm the gates, they just waited for the regime to run out of rope. and judging by the latest headlines, that rope’s getting shorter every day.
russian victory parade this year is just a guy with a bucket, mopping up the leaks in the kremlin basement.