putin hyped up his “megacauldron” plan like it was going to be the next stalingrad, but the only thing getting cooked is his own ego. the big encirclement never happened, unless you count the way his narrative keeps tripping over itself and faceplanting on live tv.
the magical shrinking advance
every couple months, putin jumps on camera and drops a new “objective” about how close his troops are to sumy. in june, it was 9.5 kilometers away and “decisive.” two months later, suddenly its 12 kilometers. by september, he’s bragging about being 19 kilometers out. i dont know what kind of math they teach in the kremlin, but if you keep getting further from your target, thats called retreating, not advancing. maybe next month theyll be “storming” the polish border by reversing into belarus.
the best part is, putin actually buys this crap. this isnt just for the tv zombies, this is his own fantasy league. his generals are too scared to tell him the truth, so they just keep moving the goalposts and hope he doesnt notice. meanwhile, z bloggers are out here drawing arrows on maps like theyre playing risk, pretending theres some 4d chess happening, when really its just a bunch of guys getting lost in a cornfield and calling it “maneuver warfare.”
the cauldron that never boiled
the “megacauldron” was supposed to be a classic: cut off ukrainian forces, surround them, force a surrender. textbook soviet stuff. tiny problem, though: ukraine isnt playing along. instead of getting trapped, they keep blowing holes in the russian lines, torching supply convoys, and making every kilometer cost more than a moscow apartment. the only thing getting encircled is the russian logistics chain, and the only thing getting cooked is another batch of mobilized conscripts who thought they were signing up for a parade.
putin’s plan is basically a group project where everyone forgot to do the homework, so they just keep talking louder and hoping the teacher doesnt notice. ukraine keeps showing up with receipts, and all the kremlin can do is threaten to nuke the syllabus.
infinite cope loop
back in moscow, the regime is running a live social experiment: how many times can you promise victory before people start noticing you’re just recycling last year’s speeches? the answer is infinite, as long as you throw in some nuclear threats and blame the west for everything from drone strikes to the price of buckwheat. the kremlin’s biggest achievement isnt battlefield success, its convincing a nation that losing slower is the same as winning.
- promise a big win
- move the goalposts
- blame the west
- repeat until nobody remembers what the original plan was
the only thing theyre actually tightening is the noose around their own credibility, and even that rope is fraying.
ukraine flips the script
while putin’s busy measuring imaginary advances, ukraine’s out here closing the sky over moscow, hitting russian and iranian ships in the caspian, and making the regime look like its running a clown car with the brakes cut. every time the kremlin claims theyre “tightening the noose,” its just another excuse for why the front line keeps moving the wrong way.
the only thing theyre encircling is their own bullshit, and even that leaks faster than a lada in winter. ukraine ripped the claws off this plan before it even left the drawing board.
the only thing getting boiled in putin’s megacauldron is his own narrative, and the only thing getting surrounded is the regime by its own bullshit.
putin can keep dreaming about his big cauldron. the rest is just cope, served hot and steaming straight from the kremlin kitchen. russia’s biggest export is excuses, and business is booming.