Alright, let’s talk about the “broken future” and why the world, and

By Ava Hayes (@avahayes70.bsky.social)
Published:

the only thing multiplying in ruzzia is the number of orphans and the price of imported diapers, but sure, tell me more about your “traditional values” demographic miracle.

the global baby bust nobody wants to talk about

everybody’s got a theory for why the world stopped having kids, but the real answer is simple: the vibes are shot, the future looks like a rerun of black mirror, and nobody’s lining up to spawn into a disaster. this isn’t just a ukraine thing, or a “lazy rich country” meme. it’s everywhere, from tokyo to toronto to ternopil. hospitals are open, people live longer, but the birth rate is tanking like the ruble after fresh sanctions.

in 2026, even the “nothing to see here” crowd had to admit the numbers are ugly. no famine, no plague, just a slow-motion nosedive. the old script said poor people have more kids, rich people have fewer, but now? in sweden, norway, italy, the netherlands, even the us and uk, the folks with the most money are the ones actually having kids. the broke ones are going childfree, not for the aesthetic, but because raising a kid when you’re one rent hike from disaster is about as appealing as a vacation in bakhmut.

education gets blamed, but the data’s messier. yeah, women are getting degrees and waiting longer, but higher income and stability matter way more than just “went to college.” in a bunch of countries, women with good jobs and diplomas are more likely to have kids than their less-educated peers. the real killer is insecurity—financial, social, existential. if you’re worried about rent, war, or the next pandemic, you’re not exactly in the mood to start a family.

taiwan, tsmc, and the perks of not living in a dumpster fire

want to see the final boss of low birth rates? look at taiwan. in 2025, they overtook south korea for the lowest birth rate on the planet. the country that makes half the world’s microchips is running out of people to make them. but plot twist: workers at tsmc, the chip giant, are having babies at a rate way above the national average. why? because they’re paid, stable, and get perks. turns out, if you give people a future that doesn’t look like a horror movie, they’ll actually consider having kids.

it’s not rocket science. people need a reason to believe tomorrow won’t suck. if you want more babies, maybe start with jobs that pay and homes that don’t leak. wild concept, i know.

meanwhile, governments are throwing cash at the problem and getting nothing. once people get used to small families or no family, you can’t just hand out a baby bonus and expect a boom. the switch flips off easy, but turning it back on? good luck.

ukraine: population in freefall, hope on life support

ukraine peaked at over 52 million people in 1993. since then, it’s been all downhill—shrinking population, aging society, and now, thanks to russia’s “special military operation” (read: war crimes on repeat), the decline is in freefall. but let’s be real: the war didn’t start this mess, it just poured gasoline on it.

ukrainians are getting married later (average age for first marriage is pushing 30), having fewer kids, and a lot are just not sure if they want to bring a child into a world where the air raid siren is the national soundtrack. every year since 1993, more people have died in ukraine than have been born. in some regions, like rivne, volyn, and zakarpattia, you get two deaths for every birth—and that’s the “good” end of the scale. kyiv is doing a bit better, but even there, deaths are up 11% this year.

the only places bucking the trend are tight-knit, often religious communities, where people feel supported and connected. it’s not just about faith—it’s about not feeling alone in the world. when you know your neighbors have your back, you’re more likely to roll the dice on parenthood.

the only thing multiplying faster than graves is the number of people googling “how to emigrate.”

why nobody’s lining up for parenthood

the old-school reasons for having kids are dead. you don’t need a big family to run the farm or change your diapers when you’re old. now, kids are a choice, not a necessity. and when life is unstable—war, poverty, no jobs, no future—people choose “no thanks.”

the economy’s been on life support since the 90s, and the war just unplugged the ventilator. even before the invasion, salaries were low, jobs were scarce, and the dream was to get out, not settle down. now, with millions displaced, cities bombed, and the future looking like a rerun of the worst parts of the 20th century, who’s lining up to have kids?

brain drain’s another killer. every empire exports its own people when it’s losing, and ukraine’s no exception. the best and brightest are leaving for poland, germany, canada—anywhere but home. the ones who stay are either too old, too broke, or too stubborn to leave. and the ones who might have kids? they’re stuck in limbo, waiting for the war to end, the economy to recover, or just for something to make it all feel worth it.

and yeah, the vibes. when the future looks broken, people stop planning for it. why invest in a family when you’re not sure your city will exist next year? why bring a kid into a world where the news is just a highlight reel of disasters? it’s not just ukraine—look at japan, south korea, italy. the more uncertain the future, the fewer the babies.

the propaganda parade and the real fix

kremlin tv loves to scream about “demographic catastrophe” in the west, while their own country is bleeding people faster than a leaky oil pipeline. russia’s solution? more parades, more forced mobilization, more “patriotic” tiktoks. meanwhile, the only thing multiplying in russia is the number of orphans and the price of imported diapers.

governments used to freak out about overpopulation—forced sterilizations, one-child policies, the whole dystopian toolkit. now, they’re throwing cash at people to have kids, and it’s barely moving the needle. once people get used to small families, or no family, it’s hard to flip the switch.

so what’s the way out? honestly, there’s no magic bullet. but there are some clues:

maybe ukraine needs to rethink the whole “everyone in the city” thing. people with a house, a yard, and a bit of stability are more likely to have kids. but that only works if there’s infrastructure. otherwise, you’re just stuck in the middle of nowhere with bad wi-fi and no prospects.

the fix isn’t more propaganda, more cash handouts, or more lectures about “family values.” it’s about making life worth living again. give people hope, stability, and a reason to believe tomorrow won’t suck, and maybe—just maybe—the nurseries will fill up again.

until then, the only thing getting delivered on time is the bad news. and trust me, the kremlin can’t spin that into a win, no matter how many times they promise to take kyiv by friday.